A few days ago I watched Tsui Hark’s The Return of the Condor Heroes: The Great Hero on iQIYI. The plot moved quickly, the visuals were polished, and Guo Jing, Huang Rong, and Hua Zheng were all acted well. The supporting cast was solid too, and the costumes and props were handled carefully. On the whole, the film does not feel like a box office result of just over 600 million RMB. For a moment I thought of it as one of those blue-chip stocks that get unfairly sold off in the market. But a stock that has been mistreated will eventually come back; a film, if the audience misses it, may truly be missed for good.
The tariff shock and my position
On April 7, the market fell sharply because of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. I added 30% to my position over the 7th and 8th. As of today, the market value of my holdings is up 2% compared with April 3, the Friday before the reciprocal tariffs were announced. Even though my portfolio has only risen 2% through this round of volatility, the Shanghai Composite is still about 1.5% below the April 3 close. So once the index fully recovers, I estimate the gain from this turmoil will probably be around 3.5%.
On the 6th I wrote a separate piece about my view of this tariff event and said I was strongly bullish on China’s favorable position in it. But by today’s close, my actual gain from the turbulence was still below what I had expected. That left me both disappointed and relieved. Disappointed, because my wish to make money is still rather vulgar and the swings were not large enough to turn into anything more than a small profit. Relieved, because after the panic on the 7th, investors quickly returned to rationality. That kind of confidence is very positive for the long-term development of China’s stock market, and the fact that the country can keep the market stable under this kind of pressure is part of where that confidence comes from.
When Trump softened his tone in Beijing time on the 23rd and said tariffs on China would be cut, U.S. stocks jumped for two straight days on the 23rd and 24th, while A-shares merely moved sideways for two days in a row. At this point A-shares are already able to chart their own course and do not need to follow U.S. stocks around like a tail. But the moment U.S. stocks show signs of recovery again, many investors turn away from A-shares and embrace them once more. That says a lot about how far A-shares still are from being truly attractive, and about how much confidence they still need to win from investors.
I’m not optimistic about the next stage of tariff talks
I am not optimistic about the China-U.S. tariff negotiations over the next month or two. I doubt they will produce any real result, because the two sides are too far apart in their expectations and their core interests are very hard to reconcile. The talk of lower tariffs and the atmosphere of negotiation may only be Trump’s way of easing the pressure he is under right now, rather than a genuine goal.
At the moment, Trump is floating the idea that the negotiations could end up with actual tiered tariffs on Chinese goods in the range of 50% to 100% or even higher. That level is obviously unacceptable to China. Even if the rate were set around 20% as the most common level, I still think China would find that difficult to accept. So I think the U.S. stock market’s strong rebound over these two days may continue tonight, meaning U.S. Friday daytime and perhaps next week could still see further repair. But after that, once the tariff negotiations become clearer, the market may well fall hard again.
In short, I still do not like U.S. stocks. If the Nasdaq rises above 19,000 and the S&P 500 rises above 5,800, then it may be worth looking for an opportunity to short them. Of course, that would still need to be adjusted at any time depending on new information from the negotiations.
I had originally wanted to write a detailed record of my stock operations during this round of tariff conflict, but I doubt many people would be interested, so I’ll stop here.
Slower days, more reading, and less stamina
This year I have been exercising far less than last year, and I can feel my energy has dropped quite a bit. When I read now, I often doze off. Two years ago that almost never happened.
I can’t even remember when I first noticed my father nodding off while reading. Back then I teased him: if you’re going to sleep, just go to bed; if you’re going to read, at least stay awake. Now it’s my turn. For middle-aged people, exercise, diet control, and a regular schedule are three health essentials. They really do need to be enforced more and more strictly.
A while ago, while listening on Himalaya, I stumbled upon a lecture on Buddhist Philosophy narrated by Ximo Tingshu. After listening, I came away with a new understanding of Buddhist thought, and I couldn’t help but admire the greatness of the Buddha. That also made me want to fill in the gaps in my own knowledge of Buddhism.
My plan is to go from shallow to deep: first read a history of Buddhism, then a history of Buddhist philosophy. When I asked Doubao which book I should start with, it recommended Chen Bing’s A Brief History of Chinese Buddhism. But I couldn’t find that book on JD’s physical bookstore, JD Reading, WeChat Reading, or anywhere else online. It seems Doubao made it up again. AI hallucinations can be infuriating sometimes: it points you toward a road that does not exist and leaves you stumbling around for no reason.
In the end, I chose these books for myself:
- Chinese Buddhist History — Jiang Weiqiao
- Buddhist Philosophy — Fang Litian
- The Essentials of Chinese Buddhist Philosophy — Fang Litian
Besides those three Buddhist books, I’ll also read two Daoist works recently: Cao Chugi’s Zhuangzi: Annotations and Brief Notes and Annotated and Collated Bamboo-Slip Laozi. For anyone who has never touched Zhuangzi before, I think Chen Guying’s Zhuangzi: Annotated and Translated may be a better starting point, though I haven’t read that one myself.
Adding some culture at the right time is necessary. For a long time, I used to think that Chinese traditional culture was only “culture” and not “knowledge.” Looking at it now, that was a mistake. It needs to be corrected.
Lately, when I look in the mirror, I notice more and more white hairs in my beard. A quiet sadness rises for no clear reason. The hair on my head falls out but does not turn white; the beard turns white but does not fall out. It feels as if they have completely swapped roles. Gray hair on my head can at least be dyed black again, but the white stubble on my chin is much harder to do anything about. In a few years, I suppose children will be calling me grandpa. To say I don’t envy other people’s good looks would be a lie.